Oahu housing market reacts to mortgage interest rate hikes

When mortgage interest rates dropped below 5% in 2010 and then below 4% in 2012, buyers flocked to the lowest rates available since 1971. But, this year, in an attempt to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates three times, and as reported by Freddie Mac — 30-year fixed rates have spike from 3.22% in January to 5.7% by the end of June.

The ripple effects of these hikes have yet to be fully realized in the Oahu market, however, the ability of some homebuyers to qualify for a loan has likely been upended, while others may be forced out of the market entirely.

Indicators show pending sales — transactions signed and in escrow but haven’t yet closed — down in June for the third consecutive month. Single-family pending sales fell 27.7% from June 2021, and condo pending sales fell 24.8%.  In May, there were double-digit decreases in pending sales — down 17.4% and 14%, respectively. April posted an 18.7% drop in single-family pending sales, while condo pending sales dropped 8.8%.  In contrast, in June 2021, single-family pending sales were up 54.4%, and condo pending sales were up 132.9%. Pending sales data are forward-looking, and suggest fewer sales going forward.

Sales of Single-Family Homes and Condos | June 2022
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS^®, compiled from MLS data

Housing sales volume on Oahu was down in June, with single-family home sales down 20.8% and condo sales dropping 14.2% year-over-year. However, volume remains up compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

In June, 357 homes closed, compared to 451 closings in June 2021 — a 20.8% drop. Condo sales were also down in double-digits — a 14.2% drop from 730 in June 2021 to 626 condo sales that closed last month.

Regionally, the Diamond Head and Ewa Plain areas experienced the most significant drop in sales volume year-over-year, plummeting 60.9% and 27.1%, respectively. Conversely, the condo market reported sales in the $700,000 to $1,199,999 price range up 47.9%, while units in the $699,999-and-below range contributed to the primary sales decline — down 25.8% compared to a year ago.

Median Sales Price of Single-Family Homes and Condos | June 2022
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS^®, compiled from MLS data

The median sales price of a single-family home gained 12.4% — from $979,000 in June 2021 to $1,100,000 last month. Condominiums set a record for the second consecutive month with the MSP of $534,000, up 16.1% from a year ago (when the MSP was $460,000) and breaking last month’s record of $516,500.

Most single-family homes — nearly 62% — sold above the asking price in June, which is a slight 6% dip compared to last year. The Leeward and Kaneohe regions accounted for the most significant drop in pending sales, falling 68% and 63%, respectively. In the condo segment, the share of units sold above the asking price was 43%, compared to 41% in June 2021.

Of the June single-family home active inventory, 30% of the listing prices were reduced from the original asking price — compared to 20% in June 2021. In the condo segment, 27% of the listings had reduced the original asking price.

However, more sellers received the full price or more, which was the case for approximately three of every four single-family homes sold, and three of every five condos sold.

NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET STANDOUTS

Below is the May 2022 median sales price data, compared to the prior month, for neighborhoods where SF prices are near or below MSP of $1 million and condos below $500,000. (Some regions median price came down.)

To find out the MSP for your neighborhood, ask your Coldwell Banker Realtor®.

SOURCE: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®, compiled from MLS data.