Unprecedented low inventory continues means slim pickings for buyers

Oahu’s real estate inventory isn’t just low — it’s virtually nonexistent.

While limited supply stimulates the seller’s market, the severe inventory depletion of the past two years is unprecedented. Inventory of single-family homes in the last two months has reached perhaps the lowest levels since the Honolulu Board of Realtors® began tracking inventory more than 30 years ago.

To gain perspective, looking back three years, in January 2019 the total number of single-family homes available was 1,028. A year later, in January 2020, that number dropped to 833, and a year later, January 2021, it had sunk to 417.

Inventory plunged again in December 2021, to 309, and last month, only 311 Oahu single-family home listing were available.

For context, there were 326 sales that closed last month, while only 320 “new” listings were posted. With inventory sinking, its little wonder homes are selling as fast as they go on the market — record-low inventory has spurred record-high demand.

In January, SF home sales volume gained 12% year-over-year, while condo sales volume soared 40.8% compared to this time last year.

Single-family home properties in the $900,000 and up price range accounted for 70% of the month’s sales, while sales below $900,000 fell 34% from the previous year.

Approximately 61% of single-family homes closed above the original asking price — a 24% increase from this time last year.

And, SF home listings were down 12.3% in January compared to a year ago. Moreover, 58% of January’s new listings were in escrow or sold by the end of the month, according to HBR.

“This was the fifth consecutive month that closed sales outpaced new listings,” says Mike James, president of Coldwell Banker Realty.

“And I agree with the president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors® who says that as long as low inventory, near-record-low interest rates and strong demand for housing remain, we’ll continue to see fierce competition and properties move off the market at a fast pace.

Sales of Single-Family Homes and Condos | January 2022
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS^®, compiled from MLS data

The number of single-family homes that closed escrow in January increased 12% year-over-year — from 291 in January 2021, to 326 in January.

Condo sales are up impressively — from 392 a year ago to 552 last month — a whopping 40.8%. Condo sales increases occurred in nearly all price points, significantly so in the $700,000 and up segment, where sales tripled year-over-year.

The condo market also recorded a solid portion of sales closed above the original asking price — 39% of sales, compared to 30% in January 2021.

And while new condo listings in January were consistent with those a year ago, the strong demand and increased sales volume during the frenzied condo market in recent months resulted in a 30.7% drop in active condo inventory in January — from 1,396 condos available in January 2021 to 967 units last month.

Median Sales Price of Single-Family Homes and Condos | January 2022
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS^®, compiled from MLS data

With severe undersupply in single-family and condo market segments, median sales prices saw double-digit increases last month.

The MSP of a single-family home on Oahu increased by 18.9%, from $883,000 in January 2021 to $1,050,000 last month — tying the MSP record set in August 2021 and matched again in September, November and December.

The MSP of a condo was up 12.8% in January— from $452,000 to $510,000 — setting a new MSP high, surpassing the previous record of $500,000 set in August 2021.

NEIGHBORHOOD MARKET STANDOUTS

Even in neighborhoods typically thought to be more affordable, prices are ticking up. The MSP indicates that half the properties in the neighborhood sold for more, and half sold for less. Below is the 2021 annual median sales price data for neighborhoods where SF prices are available below MSP of $1 million and condos below $500,000. Makaha-Nanakuli has the most affordable real estate on the island.

To find out the MSP for your neighborhood, ask your Coldwell Banker Realtor®.

SOURCE: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®, compiled from MLS data.